How to Shape Peak Season Demand Before the Most Expensive Weeks

Peak season used to be relatively easy to plan: holiday volume ramped up, carriers introduced seasonal surcharges, and costs peaked around Thanksgiving and Christmas. However, today’s peak season is far more nuanced, creating both opportunities and obstacles for shippers. 

In 2026, FedEx alone has several different demand-pricing windows. New international non-standard shipment Demand Surcharges begin September 21. U.S. Package Additional Handling, Oversize and Unauthorized Demand Surcharges begin September 28. Express, residential Ground/Home Delivery and Ground Economy Demand Surcharges begin October 26. The highest standard holiday demand surcharge rates apply from November 23 through December 27. Some international non-standard charges then remain in place through February 7, 2027.

In other words, there is no single moment when “peak season starts.” This new cadence should change how businesses plan demand during the busiest time of year.

Peak Pricing Is Designed to Influence Behavior

Peak season demand surcharges do two things for carriers: 

1. If a shipper continues operating exactly as before, the carrier collects additional revenue during periods when its network is under greater pressure.
2. If the shipper changes its behavior to avoid the fee, the carrier benefits from a more manageable volume profile.

That raises an important question for shippers:

If the carrier is using pricing to influence your behavior, why shouldn't you use your own commercial levers to influence customer behavior?

First, Understand When Your Costs Actually Peak

Before marketing starts moving promotions around, the business needs to know which periods actually create the most incremental shipping cost. That calculation is company-specific.

For example, a shipper heavily exposed to non-standard packages may begin feeling additional FedEx costs in September. A high-volume residential ecommerce business may see a very different cost curve beginning in late October. International shippers now have another pricing window extending into February.

The first exercise should therefore be analytical:

Take last year's shipment profile and model 2026 demand pricing by week, service and package characteristic. Layer in the discounts or waivers contained in your carrier agreement. Then identify the weeks in which incremental cost rises most sharply.

Only then do you have something useful to bring to marketing, ecommerce and operations.

Next Ask Whether Demand Can Move

Not every holiday order can or should be shifted. The goal is not to suppress revenue simply to save a few dollars in transportation expenses. The goal is to understand the economics well enough to identify cases where timing can change without undermining sales or customer experience.

Consider promotion timing: if a retailer historically runs a major campaign immediately before one of the most expensive shipping weeks, could a portion of that promotion be moved forward? Could certain SKUs that are particularly expensive to ship during peak be promoted earlier in the season?

The same principle applies to delivery incentives. Rather than presenting every customer with the same shipping offer, ecommerce teams can evaluate whether slower delivery windows, economy options or incentives for alternative fulfillment methods make sense during the most expensive periods. For retailers with physical locations or distributed inventory, BOPIS, ship-from-store or regional fulfillment may help change which parcels enter the national carrier network and how far they travel. Order cutoffs are another lever. Giving customers a clearer economic incentive to order earlier can spread volume more evenly instead of allowing it to concentrate in a few high-cost days.

Shipping Data Should Inform the Promotional Calendar

This is where an Integrated Shipping approach becomes especially important.

Marketing knows which promotions are likely to generate demand. Digital and/or ecommerce may own the delivery choices and customer-facing promises. Operations understands capacity and fulfillment constraints. Finance understands margin. Supply chain understands the carrier pricing underneath all of it.

Yet at many businesses, those decisions still happen independently.

A promotion may look excellent when measured against revenue and product margin while becoming far less attractive once the incremental cost of fulfilling those orders during the most expensive week of peak is included.

Conversely, an earlier promotion may accomplish more than moving revenue forward. It can also smooth warehouse demand, reduce exposure to the highest carrier charges and create more fulfillment flexibility.

Because of this, shipping economics should be an important input to guide the marketing and promotional calendar during peak season. 

Start With the Cost Curve, Not the Carrier Announcement

Carrier demand pricing is becoming more granular, with carriers increasingly using pricing not only to generate revenue but to direct volume toward the days, services and shipment profiles that best fit their networks. Shippers should respond with the same sophistication.

LJM can apply 2026 carrier demand pricing to your historical shipping profile to identify when costs are likely to rise, which shipments drive the greatest exposure and where contractual or operational opportunities may exist.

Request a complimentary peak-season analysis.

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